2019 Exit Polls sing the saffron tune | But in 2004, polling agencies were left red-faced on a similar verdict
All exit polls opine that Narendra Modi will retain the top office in 2019; but with a reduced tally from 337 in 2014 to 300… but the pollsters have been wrong in the past.
Going by the Exit Polls published by India’s top observers of people’s pulse; BJP is pulling off another victory; albeit with a slightly diminished majority. But sample surveys of 8 lac people can hardly reveal the mood of over 50 crore voters.
- Most polls are in sync with BJP President Amit Shah’s prediction of 300+ seats for NDA.
- Rahul Gandhi, confrontational campaign against Modi gives Congress better numbers (bet on doubling or tripling) from its 2014 debacle of 44 seats.
- Exit polls in 2014 predicted at least 70 seats to incumbent Congress but were embarrassed with the final number.
- 2014 was still the closest gauge of pollsters in the last five elections
Exit polls were unpredictably wrong in 2004, when a touted Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP victory narrative was blown apart by a Sonia Gandhi-led victory for Congress-UPA.
Able to gauge Alliance trends accurately; but not numbers
Exit polls are have been pretty accurate in revealing what alliances are most likely to form after pools. However, but the accuracy in number of seats to the two major party alliances UPA and NDA was closest in 2014.
This might mean exit polls are getting better, but gauging the pulse of a billion strong population of India from not more than 10 lakh respondents is a dicey proposition.