Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the blueprint for China’s ambitions with Taiwan. While Xi Jinping tests the passive alliance of the US, Taipei should already prepare itself.
Russia-Ukraine war is going to have a multitude of effects on the global political scenarios. The world is watching carefully the shifting global orders. However, the keenest observer of the entire situation is none other than the President of China, Xi Jingpin.
The war that started on Feb 24, 2022, has startled the world with the tale of endless destruction, killings and political clashes among Russia and the West. Thousands of human casualties have been recorded while the destruction in Ukraine has changed the landscape of the country.
This unfortunate event is actually a live case study for one nation that also might have a similar plan impending- China. The world is well-aware of China’s ambition to annex Taiwan and bring it under its rule. Xi Jinping has always asserted that the country is part of the Republic of China and refuse to accept its separate identity.
So how does the unfolding of events pave way for the next big war between China and Taiwan? Let’s find out.
Will China Invade Taiwan? Xi Jinping observing Russia and Ukraine closely
On Feb 24, Russia started a war that has now stretched for almost a month in Ukraine. Not coincidently enough, Chinese aircrafts hovered over Taiwan’s air defence zone on the same day.
The incident reflects something deeper than a mistaken detour. Experts say that the move was Xi Jingpin’s attempt to threaten that island nation that vehemently challenges the One China Policy.
According to the defence ministry of Taipei, eight Chinese J-16 fighters and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft flew over the northeast island of Pratas which is controlled by Taiwan.
Russia and China share similar beliefs that often lead to armed conflicts. Both nations believe that Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, have originated out of mainland Russia and China and that, they should be reunited.
Will the US rescue Taiwan if China invades the island nation?
One of the most important factors under a watch right now is the response of the US to the Ukraine invasion. America has the reputation of an ally that hardly shows up on time. Yet, it rules the world order as of now and its role during challenging times like these cannot be overlooked.
The US has always supported Taiwan through billion-dollar weapon sales and policy favour on institutional levels. However, China would really want to test what would the US do in case it launches an armed operation against Taiwan.
This is why Xi Jinping is closely observing the role of the US in the Russia-Ukraine war.
So far, the US has supported Ukraine in the war of rhetoric and financial sanctions. However, it has failed to protect Ukraine against the armed aggression of Russia. This most likely sends out a message that if China plans to invade Taiwan next, the only thing it has to prepare for is the Western sanctions. Military aggression will likely be in favour of China.
If Ukraine is endangered, the shock will echo around the world. And those echos will be heard in east Asia- will be heard in Taiwan.
Growing alliance between Russia and China — more than ever
Russia is not just a blueprint for China. In the last few years, the two nations have grown to be close allies. This alliance has passed the test of the war and the matters are more cordial than ever.
Putin and Xi Jinping together reaffirmed in the Winter Olympics in Beijing last month that Taiwan is part of China. China is now returning the favour by giving full-fledged support to Russia in the war against Ukraine.
As a response to global sanctions, China declared that it will buy wheat from Russia to help the country deal with the economic blow. The two nations are also building more strategic trade deals than ever. Since 2014, Russia has diverted much of its trade alliances towards China from the West in anticipation of hostile relations during a war like Ukraine’s invasion.
Therefore, it is needless to say that if China chooses to invade Taiwan, it will enjoy full-blown support from the Putin administration. Unfortunately, the US might once again act as a passive ally.