by Virat Bahri __
Election predictions for 2019 would be tough to make at this stage. The BJP is on the backfoot with electoral defeats, but opposition noises are re-energising the party’s cadre.
Modi’s campaign will be key, but BJP will also have to stand in support of its cadre to ensure a decisive victory in the elections. 2019 is around the corner and many political/economic commentators are waiting more for the month of May 2019 rather than just the New Year. There is excitement all around for the biggest event for India next year – General Elections 2019.
Let’s look at the argument for getting excited – Opposition is excited as they think that they are in the best position since 2014 to stop the BJP juggernaut. They have become emboldened after few setbacks for Modi. BJP is excited as they are looking at it professionally and they think they have enough in the tank to keep the opposition away.
Opinion polls have started coming and few key factors Identified in these polls are:
BJP could lose big in UP if BSP & SP combines
BJP could lose big in MH if Shiv Sena fights separately
Congress would gain in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Jharkhand
BJP would gain in Northeast and Odisha
Let’s not look at any forecasting for now, as the event is four months away and any forecast now would be irrelevant in case of any external event. What is certain is that opposition noise has fired up the base of BJP and most elections are decided by core supporters. If the core supporter is excited and willing to work as cadre, then part of your job is done. Factually, core supporters of BJP are not satisfied with the regime due to lack of progress on following actions:
Free temple control
Remove draconian provision of SC/ST act
Despite this, these supporters have started closing ranks behind the BJP because they firmly believe that the opposition will be worse on all these factors. So the more noise the opposition creates, the more excited the BJP’s support base will be. This would start reflecting in donations received for the party or the number of people taking sabbaticals for the campaign. Social media trends would also reflect it.
The opposition is also putting its act together and working based on caste calculations. They have built a good alliance in bigger states and won’t be a pushover anywhere.
The biggest x-factor for election would be the campaign blitz of Modi and organic traffic BJP gets. But the BJP would need to support its cadre base silently.