BJP has higher vote share in MP and vote share is neck to neck in Rajasthan.
Optimistic case for BJP based on these results
It has also been seen that party that controls national narrative gets a boost of 5–7% in Hindi Heartland. Pollster have also highlighted personal popularity of Modi is highest in Rajasthan, better than Gujarat and UP.
Keeping these two facts in mind, BJP can easily be ahead by 5% on vote share in MP and 8–10% in Rajasthan. With that vote share, BJP most likely to get 20/25 in Rajasthan and 21–3/29 in MP. It would be a loss of seats but can be easily compensated.
Optimism for congress
History has also given us instances where ruling state government can win swing lok sabha seats so if that happens then congress can easily win 50% seats in Rajasthan & MP and that would mean jump from 2 seats in 2014 to 25 seats. That would be lethal for BJP