What would happen if Trump loses the election in November? How would he take defeat? How would his base would react? — There are many who fear that the incumbent President might very well refuse to accept the result of the election and could end up instigating his base towards unconstitutional means. Here’s what experts fear would happen in the US after the results of the 2020 Election?
As the election season in the United States heats up with a Corona scarred populace which is also scared with the ongoing violence in the country, a legitimate fear that anyone has is about whether the 2020 Presidential Election would descend into chaos. Given the deep divisions and the incendiary rhetoric that is in play, one cannot rule out the election results to be contested by either side should they lose. Indeed, more so if President Trump fails to get re-elected (a distinct possibility, as opinion polls indicate) and then triggers a civil war by asking his base to come out on his behalf.
While these fears were in the background until now, they have since started being expressed by mainstream experts and journalists as indicated by a recent gathering of a Bipartisan Group of politicians, media analysts, independent consultants, and members of Congress. This group met to war game scenarios of what would happen in the immediate aftermath of the election. The scenarios included a win for either Trump or Biden, the repeat of the 2016 situation where Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but, lost out on the Electoral College, and a dead heat scenario like in the case of the 2000 Presidential election when George Bush Jr and Al Gore had to fight it out in the Supreme Court.
A Perfect Storm? What Would Trump do if he loses and why 2020 is different?
The results of the gaming simulations were not pretty as the outcome of each scenario resulted in some sort of chaotic situations worrying the participants. One of them, Ed Luce of the Financial Times wrote about Trump and his base more likely to incite violence. This has now been picked by most media outlets that have been discussing the possibility of a disputed election throwing the United States into disarray. Even Trump has so far refused to explicitly state whether he would accept a defeat by giving ambiguous statements. Indeed, Biden has gone as far as to state that Trump would need to be more than “persuaded” to give way if he loses.
While each Presidential Election in the US often comes with its own anxieties for the people, it is different this time as the country, already reeling under the “double whammy” of the virus and Black Lives Matter protests is on the edge. This is compounded by a tanking economy and amplified social media rhetoric worsened by charges of Russian interference yet again. One could go as far as to say that the US is staring at a Perfect Storm of converging crises that adds to a Lethal Brew. In the same manner in which a Molotov cocktail explodes into a destructive outburst, the ongoing rage can erupt worsening the Law and Order situation in the country.
Can the Republican Party Save Itself and the Country from Trump?
What is also worrying is that Trump himself seems to be fueling the flames of partisanship aided and abetted by Republican Party. Of course, the dissenting wing of the party, like the Never Trump crowd is making noises about safeguarding the social fabric. However, there are now real concerns that the charged up base of diehard fans for Trump might well take to the streets in case he loses.
Another potential flashpoint is what happens in the days leading to the election and immediately after. With the furor unleashed by Trump about Mail-in Voting being against his interests, chances are that active voter suppression would be a real possibility leading to all-round conflicts. If Trump does not get his way on this issue, there is the likelihood of him crying wolf about the outcome leading to blood on the streets. Either way, the outlook is uncertain and not pretty going into the Election Day.
While America Swears by God and Guns, a Convergence of the Two Would be Chaos
Lastly, while the United States has always had constitutional checks and balances that prevent a candidate from taking it too far, this time around, Team Trump is acting in a manner which, suggests that they might go as far as to create a constitutional crisis. Already, recent events have shown the Trump administration doesn’t blink when flouting judicial orders.
While the country swears by God and Guns, the conflation of both might be the catalyst for an insurrection, the likes of which have not been seen before.