We may be reaching a ‘point of no return’ – where an uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of international order.
- A study by Australian independent think-tank Breakthrough envisions a horrific view where the human civilization may start on road to breakdown of social order by 2050.
- The report reasons that potentially “extremely serious outcomes” of climate-related security threats are more probable than are conventionally valued.
- The ‘high end’ risk scenario is in contrast to the extremely conservative UN report in 2018 which failed to create alarm and urge in the political leaders to act globally.
- Such a scenario would impact living conditions for billions of people, inducing major water across settlements and agricultural collapse in sub tropical nations.
The freshest study on the much trending but thoroughly underestimated topic of climate change suggests a plausible scenario where the human civilization could have triggered its demise and in 31 years, gradual extinction could start.
As per the report published by Melbourne think-tank, the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, climate change is a “near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization”.
It is not something that will happen generations from now when the earth population breathing and polluting right now with already be dead.
The analysis which gives a horrific image of how human civilization will start environment powered depletion in the next three decades has been backed by a former Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander.
The new analysis
The report by the independent Australian think-tank reasons that potentially “extremely serious outcomes” of climate-related security threats are more probable than they are conventionally valued.
Quantifying the impact is almost impossible as the current trajectory falls “outside the human experience of the last thousand years.”
The Breakthrough report warns, “planetary and human systems are reaching a ‘point of no return’ by mid-century, in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order.”
The point of no return
While it is nowhere near an exact study, the report by Breakthrough sets out a ‘high end’ risk scenario; in contrast to the extremely conservation report from the UN in 2018 which failed to create an alarm and urge in the political leaders to act globally.
The authors of the report have asserted that conventional approach to the estimated risk from the climate change tends to ‘downplay worst-case scenarios despite their plausibility’.
The study emphasizes on how easy it could be to end up in an accelerating runaway climate scenario which would lead to a largely uninhabitable planet by 2050.
The effects would accelerate the collapse of larger natural ecosystems like the coral reef systems, the Amazon rainforest and other big oxygen replenishing zones and also the ice cap of the Arctic region.
If such a scenario unfolds, the impact could destroy the habitat of over a billion people, who then will be force to relocate due to extremely unlivable conditions. There could also be a major water shortage, the report opines, could impact another two billion people.
The study further suggests that agricultural crisis resulting in collapse in the sub-tropic countries could lead to severe impact on the global food supply chain with significantly lesser food production that may cause wide-spread hunger.
Countries, UN, and similar institutions will find it tough to hold up international order.
Such a catastrophe would lead to the downfall of several major global powers which might find it tough to sustain the economy and take care of citizens.
The unvarnished truth about human destiny
The report opines that even the heavily criticized for being too conservative 2°C of warming, may force over a billion people to relocate. In an extremely grave ‘high-risk’ scenario, it is virtually incomprehensible to evaluate and forecast the scale of destruction as the human civilization has no recorded or analyzed example in its history.
The report suggests the deterioration might be” beyond our capacity to model with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end,”
The study’s foreword has been written by Australia’s retired Chief of Defence Force Admiral Chris Barrie, who praised the authors for “laying bare the unvarnished truth about the desperate situation humans, and our planet, are in, painting a disturbing picture of the real possibility that human life on Earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.”
As per the report’s projected scenario, humans will likely get a hold of the current trajectory of climate change at around 3 degrees Celsius of global heating, which could further amplify the warming process.
Can we avoid this?
Much of the information and research done for politicians to ponder project the impact is way too conservative in its impact assessment. “Because the risks are now existential, a new approach to climate and security risk assessment is required using scenario analysis,” the author said.
The only way of tackling the grave situation would be a global movement similar to the scale of mobilization during the World War 2.
This suggests that last year’s UN report for global legislators was in fact far too optimistic – even when the assessment gave a dramatically devastating view of the civilization.
As per the Breakthrough study, the only way to limiting the risks and somehow ensuring that such a situation does not occur is to perform a mass mobilization towards the cause, something close to the scale of World War 2 action – but which concentrates on rapidly moving towards a zero-emission environment and active restoration of the damage to forests and other natural ecosystems.
“A high-end 2050 scenario finds a world in social breakdown and outright chaos,” said one of the creators of the study, “But a short window of opportunity exists for an emergency, global mobilization of resources, in which the logistical and planning experiences of the national security sector could play a valuable role.”
- In such a ‘high-risk’ scenario, it is incomprehensible to forecast the exact scale of destruction as the human civilization has no recorded example in over a millennium.
- The deterioration, if it is in line with the study, might make recovery beyond the human capacity, resulting in a situation of likely extinction of human civilization.
- Even if we are able to get hold of the current trajectory of climate change, a 3 degrees Celsius projection of global heating, will further amplify warming of the earth.
- As per the study, the only way of tackling the grave situation would be a global movement similar to the scale of mobilization during the World War 2.