US President Donald Trump has seen a spike in his ratings close to a 50 per cent but what does it actually mean.
The citizens of US approves of Trump’s response to Coronavirus pandemic more than his overall performance
- A Game of Ratings
- Rally-Around-The-Flag Effect
- The Support System
America is leading the world with the most coronavirus infection confirmed. It’s in the nature of the American voter to trust their leaders in times of crisis.
With his response to the pandemic, President Donald Trump has seen a surge in his approval ratings though it’s still under the 50 per cent mark. The spike can be seen in the surveys released this week by Fox 48 per cent, Gallup 49 per cent and Pew 45 per cent.
The polls reveal that America’s approval of Trump’s response to COVID-19 is more favourable than his overall performance. America is set to vote in November 2020.
A Game of Ratings
In the past week, Trump has tried to cement his position as a ‘Wartime President’ a rhetoric war cry against the unseen common enemy, coronavirus.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic there had been serious questions about Trump administration’s governance. Initially, Trump downplayed the threat of coronavirus. With the growing number of cases the administration eventually took it seriously and imposed a lockdown. Then Trump suggested opening up the country by Easter.
President Donald Trump update Reporters at 47.24
Ideally, Trump’s rating should slump down like President Bush’s 25 per cent in early November 2008 during the Great Depression. Or like President Richard Nixon’s 24 per cent in August 1974 when he resigned over Watergate.
The surge in Trump’s ratings is an indication that his base supporters are resolute and unflinching.
However, according to the experts, the spike in the approval isn’t an indication of his re-election.
Rally Around The Flag Effect
In the 1970s’ American political scientist and journalist, John Mueller first reported Rally Around The Flag Effect in a paper called “Presidential Popularity From Truman to Johnson.” It’s a trend that’s observed in American politics.
Historically speaking various US President’s have seen this spike. For example, George W Bush post 9/11 and before the Iraq War, Ronald Regan during the Grenada military action, George HW bush before the Gulf War and so on.
Looking at Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama the country was behind him with his rating soaring in the 60s. It fell to 40 and surged back up to 50 after killing Osama Bin Laden.
- By comparison, Trump’s ratings are narrower.
The Support System
Elaborating how Trump who’ll inch close to a 50 per cent for the first time Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts polling for NPR said, “We’re seeing although his (Trump) numbers have inched up, it’s still roughly in his zone of support.”
And as evident as American’s support to its leaders in the face of crisis is so is its dip. For example, President George HW Bush’s polling soared greatly but didn’t sustain. He lost the re-elections to Democrat Bill Clinton just 20 months later. Clinton had fought the elections based on domestic and economic issues.
There’s a high chance that it could happen to President Donald Trump too. His war against the ‘unseen enemy’ will be followed by many deaths, recession and economic crisis.
America’s progress will also be measured against other countries that have proven more effective in flattening the curve!
So while the US shows favourable ratings for Donald Trump the lingering effects of coronavirus seven months down the line will surely have their effect.