Most exit polls claim NDA majority with 300+ seats, but a handful samples can’t gauge the pulse of India – Here are the possibilities.
The suspense is going to end tomorrow. Exit polls say NDA will have an easy win securing with 300-plus seats. India Today-AXIS My India went as high as 339-365 seats, leaving just 77-108 for UPA and 69-95 for others.
Historically, exit polls flatter to deceive more often than not. With the unpredictability of voter mood in 2019, multiple scenarios could arise before we have a new government in India.
PM Modi retaining the top office is the most likely scenario, but we take a look at what else can happen once the results are out on the 23rd.
Likely Scenarios for formation of new government
If the incumbent government secures the magic figure of 272, then Narendra Modi will be the PM again. This scenario is most likely to take place as according to the poll predictions of around 60 seats in UP.
The party will have easy wins in Odisha, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. This means absolute majority for BJP and unprecedented power for the PM Modi’s cabinet in the center – from policy making to governing institutions.
With majority in both the houses, BJP will be able to enforce its ideology and controversial amendments to the constitutions as it promises in its manifesto.
This is another scenario that exit polls predict. If the incumbent falls short of by 30-40 seats then NDA is likely to take support from regional parties resulting in a post- poll alliance.
In this scenario, PM Modi is again most likely to retain top office. However, BJP’s power to enforce its policies will stand diminished. A number of allies aren’t aligned to PM Modi’s nationalist propaganda.
If alliance has an issue with Modi as PM, names like that of Nitin Gadkari might come up, owning to his popularity among regional parties not just limited to NDA allies. Gadkari maintains acceptability and cordial demeanor across party lines.
In this scenario, UPA makes a coup, achieves the unthinkable and dethrones the expected trend in the country. With no chances of NDA achieving minority, the grand opposition alliance will stake its claim.
PM Modi is replaced either by Rahul or one of the big leaders in allies like Mayawati, Akhilesh, Chandrababu Naidu or maybe Rahul Gandhi.
The government will be heavily reliant on regional parties with a mixed cabinet but Congress leading the front will ensure stability.
This will present a precarious situation; albeit a victory for the contest of democracy. With both NDA and UPA falling short of desirable numbers, regional parties like TMC, YSRCP, SP- BSP, TDP and TRS will have the opportunity to bring in a surprise candidate for PM.
Such a government will find it tough to last 5 years given the differences between stakeholders.
This will mean that in 2019, voters were more informed and voted in accordance to their interest, albeit, putting up a situation like 1996 with a third front coming up.
The Stage is Set
Going by the Exit Polls published by India’s top observers of people’s pulse; BJP is pulling off another victory; albeit with a slightly diminished majority. But sample surveys of 8 lac people can hardly reveal the mood of 57 crore voters that turned out in 2019.
Counting of EVMs and matching with VVPATs is set to continue till midnight tomorrow before its revealed which party has enough seats to stake its claim to run the 17th Lok Sabha in 2019.