Donald Trump has divided America in two distinct eras B.D. (before Donald) and A.D. (after Donald). Scrutinizing America’s Fate A.D. and will he hand…Biden the biggest mess to clean up?
When an infamous presidency goes down, massive shifts in geopolitical dynamics are expected. The clock is ticking. Most of the US has already voted but some questions still remain intact, unanswered ever since the onset of the presidential race:
What if Trump loses the election? What if Biden falls behind? What if Trump doesn’t accept defeat? And most importantly, what is the fate of the United States from here on?
One question at a time.
If President Donald Trump loses the 2020 presidential election, the road ahead is not going to be facile. Not that the run up to the election has been a cake walk. However, given the infamous obstinacy of the Republican president, what may follow Trump’s defeat could be a collapse of American democracy. Political experts have been anticipating President Trump’s refusal to leave the White House since months. This can very well be played out if his Republican acolytes provide him the political cushion needed to stage a coup of the democratic elections.
This is not the only possibility. Trump’s defeat in the presidential elections can unfold a plethora of repercussions worldwide.
Post-Trump Era Approaches: Here’s What’s In Store For America And The World.
Come What May, Trump Will Not Concede Easily
This is no secret. The current president of the United States cleared it in late September that he will not transfer the house peacefully. And this was not the first time that he made his intentions clear. In 2016, during an election campaign against Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump said in a speech that he will only accept the election result if he wins.
Watch: Trump refuses to commit to a peaceful transfer of power
So what can President Trump do if he loses the election? While the answer can be that he would refuse to accept the result, the real trouble lies in his potential to misuse power to turn odds against his loss.
The constitution of America is fragile and can be played for political gains.
The interregnum period – a 79 day long period between the election result and new president’s swearing – involves a few intermediate steps before the oval passes to the winning candidate. The world has seen how Donald Trump audaciously eliminated the debate ritual of the presidential race. Taking a cue, it won’t be far fetched to conclude that he can do it again. Under Trump’s administration, these intermediate steps during the interregnum period can be totally discarded and may never happen.
So what are these steps? The first step is when the electors in the 50 states and District of Columbia meet and cast their presidential ballot. This happens on the first Monday after the first two Wednesdays of December. This year, the date is 14th December. The second step is when the newly elected Congress takes the seat which is on the third day of January. The final step before the verdict is held on the sixth day of January which is the day when the House and Senate come together to count the votes formally. These pro forma steps have never been violated in the history of American presidential elections but under Trump’s administration, the world has become accustomed to vicissitudes.
How Trump’s Defeat Will Affect Other Populist World Leaders?
President Trump undoubtedly established a bonhomie with other populist leaders of different countries who share his ethos.
Whether it is Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro or India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, when Trump goes down, there is something to lose for most of the world leaders. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and the U.S. president developed an uncanny chemistry that isn’t hidden from the world. Though Trump still couldn’t succeed in denuclearizing North Korea. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Trump again settled on some pretty notable gains for the Middle-eastern country, the U.S’s withdrawal from the Iran Accord being the highlight.
Watch: Trump praises Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Salman
When we talk about international leaders renowned for bonhomie with Trump, a name that can’t be missed is Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has bagged tough gains in different spheres like lifted sanctions to develop arms control.
Increasing chances of Biden’s win in the elections are threatening Jair Bolsonaro the most. Trump and Bolsonaro seem to share a similar political mind and heart. Under the Trump administration, Brazil has won many economic, trade and space-exploration cooperation. However, Joe Biden has clearly spoken about his focus on environment conservation, stating that Brazil government’s inability to curb Amazon deforestation will lead to economic consequences for the country.
The list can go on from Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu expecting to execute his West Bank ambitions during a second term of Trump to Andrzej Duda and Viktor Orban, the leaders of Poland and Hungary, whose conservative Christian values have been caressed like never before by Trump.
The Road After Possible Win For Biden
No matter Trump wins or loses in the elections, what is certain is that he will not vanish from the American political scenario. The US president has carved himself an irreplaceable position in the GOP (at least for a few coming years).
Closely scrutinizing the entire passage of Trump’s political footprints, since his first run for elections, it is found that he is not famous in his party because he is being a voice of what every Republican believes in. In fact, he is becoming the voice of some extreme conservatives extending to the far right, whose opinions and thoughts were often shunned due to being too conservative. Conservatives who contradicted their president at points are now out of the picture and that’s why the world doesn’t notice them.
A similar case follows for American citizens who are Trump supporters. Joe Biden might become the Democrat President of the United States but if that happens, he will find himself strutting down a road of constant dilemmas and paradoxes. The people of country work in thermo-statistical fashion with the government. If the government is right leaning, there is a public outcry in favor of left ideology. If the government leans left, people raise their voices for right sentiments.
The problem that Biden will constantly face is not just the right leaning people’s demands and voice, but also questions from within the party.
Joe Biden is a Catholic Democrat leaning centre left, which sounds like an outcast among other far left members of the party. If Biden will ever choose to act upon the right sentiments of people (which he might also favor sometimes), he should be ready for backlash from his own party, especially Senators like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez.